Safar ka ek khayal
Raah pe chalte chalte ... puchha paon ke chhaalon ne ... ,
Raah pe chalte chalte ...
Raah pe chalte chalte ... puchha paon ke chhaalon ne ... ,
Basti kitni duur banayee hai ... dil mein basney waalon ne .
-Nagrik
The Year: 2020
Place: Two Americans at IBM, USA.
Currency Conversion Rate: Re 1/- = $100/-.
Alex: Hi John, you didn't come yesterday to office?
John: Yeah, I was in Indian Embassy for stamping.
Alex: Oh really, what happened, I heard that nowadays it has become very strict.
John: Yeah, but I managed to get it.
Alex: How long it took to get it stamped?
John: Oh, it was nasty man, long queue. Bill Gates was standing in front of me and they played with him like anything. That's why it got delayed. I went there at 2 am itself and waited and returned by 4 pm.
Alex: Really? In India, it is a matter of an hour to get stamped for USA
John: Yeah, but that is because who in India will be interested in coming to USA man, their economy has been booming.
Alex: So, when are you leaving?
John: Anytime, after receiving my tickets from the client in India and you know, I will be getting a chance to fly Air-India. Sort of dream come true.
Alex: How long are you going to stay in India.
John: What do you mean by how long? I will be settled in India, my company has promised me that they will process my Hara Patta .(green card)
Alex: Really, lucky person man, it is very difficult to get a Hara Patta in India.
John: Yeah, that's why, I am planning to marry an Indian girl there.
Alex: But you can find lots of US girls in Chennai, Bangalore and Mumbai.
John: But, I prefer Indian girls because they are beautiful and cultured.
Alex: Where did you get the offer, Chennai?
John: Yeah, salary is good there, but cost of living is quite high, it is Rs. 1000/- for a single room accommodation.
Alex: I see, that's too much for US people, Rs.1/- =$100/-. Oh God! what about in Bangalore, Mumbai?
John: No idea, but it is less than what we have in Chennai. It is like the world headquarters of software
Alex: I heard, almost all the Indians are having one personal Robot for help.
John: You can get a BMW car for Rs. 5000/-, and a personal Robot for less than Rs.7500/-. But my dream is to purchase Ambassador, which costs Rs.2,00,000/- but has got a lovely design.
Alex: By the way, who is your client?
John: Iyer and Iyengar Associates, a pure Indian company, specialising in Embedded Software.
Alex: Oh, really, lucky to work in a pure Indian company. They are really intelligent and unlike American Bodyshoppers who have opened their Fly-by-night outfits in India. Indian companies pay you in full even when you are on bench.
My friend Paul Allen, it seems, used his bench time to visit Bihar, the most liveable place in India, probably world. There you have full freedom and no restrictions. You can do whatever you want! I wonder how that state has perfected that system.
John: Yeah man!, you are right. I hope our America also follows their footsteps.
Alex: How are you going to cope with their language?
John: Why not? From my school days I have been learning Hindi as my first language here at New York. At the Consulate they tested my proficiency in Hindi and were quite impressed by my cent per cent score in TOHIL i.e. Test of Hindi as International Language.
Alex: So, you are going to have fun there.
John: Yeah, I will be travelling in the world's fastest train, world's largest theme park, and the famous Bollywood where you can see actors like, Hrithik, Shah Rukh Khan and all. Esselworld is also near Bollywood.
Alex: You know, the PM is scheduled to visit US next year, he may then relax the number of visas.
John: That's true. Last month, Narayana Murthy visited White House and donated Rs. 2000/- for infrastructure development at Silicon Valley and has promised more if we follow the model of High-Tech City of Hyderabad. Bill Gates also got a chance of meeting him. Very lucky person.
Alex: But, Indian government is planning to split Narayanamurthy's Infosys.
John: He is a hard worker man, he can build any number of Infosys like this. Every minute he is getting Rs. 1000/-. It seems, if you keep all his money converted as Rs. 100/- notes you can reach Pluto.
Alex: OK, Good Luck John.
John: Same to you Alex. And don't go to Consulate in a "Kurta Pyjama" because they will think you are too Indianised and may doubt you will never come back and hence your Non-Immigrant Visa may get rejected. But don't forget to say " Namaste, aap kaise hai " to the Visa officer at Window 5. It seems he likes that and will not give you a visa if you don't greet him that way.
Let us work hard to make this dream come true.
-Nagrik.
The Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much. Also Japan exports far more than it imports. Has an annual trade surplus of over $100 billions. Yet the Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.
Americans spend, save little. Also US imports more than it exports. Has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the American economy is considered strong and trusted to get stronger.
But where from do Americans get money to spend?
They borrow from Japan, China and even India. Virtually others save for the US to spend. Global savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars. India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billions in US securities. China has sunk over $160 billion in US securities. Japan's stakes in US securities is in trillions.
Result:
The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So, as the world saves for the US, Americans spend freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going, that is for the US economy to work, other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter, which is
$2 billion a day, to the US! Otherwise the US economy would go for a six. So will the global economy. The result will be no different if US consumers begin consuming less.
A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, US in China, or China in US? The US has invested in China less than half of what China has invested in US. The same is the case with India. We have invested in US over $50 billion. But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India.
Why the world is after US?
The secret lies in the American spending, that they hardly save. In fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income. That the US spends is what makes it attractive to export to the US. So US imports more than what it exports year after year.
The result:
The world is dependent on US consumption for its growth. By its deepening culture of consumption, the US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption. But as the US needs money to finance its consumption, the world provides the money. It's like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the customer keeps buying from the shop. If the customer will not buy, the shop won't have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the lucky customer. And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper
financier.
Who is America's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan of course. Yet it's Japan which is regarded as weak. Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend, so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted it self, reduced the savings rates, even charged the savers. Even then the Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even with taxes, do they?). Their traditional postal savings alone is over$1.2 trillions, about three times the Indian GDP. Thus, savings, far from being the strength of Japan, has become its pain.
Hence, what is the lesson?
That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in the US, told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully save. Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put India on a growth curve. "Saving is sin, and spending is virtue." Before you follow this neo economics, get some fools to save so that you can borrow from them and spend.
This is what the US has successfully done in last few decades.
-Nagrik.